SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Mon Oct 25 14:04:53 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Monday, October 25, 2010       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    TUESDAY
The main jet stream is to the south of the region on Monday, cutting across the coastline near San Francisco.  There will be some lingering showers with a snow level occasionally dropping to around 3500 feet.  Expect generally westerly transport winds to continue and smoke dispersal conditions will be fair to good most areas except just fair in the southern Cascades.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY)
A developing upper level low offshore helps build high pressure aloft over the Pacific Northwest.  Subsidence and warming aloft will limit maximum mixing heights.  Weather should be dry Wednesday and low level flow will be offshore.  Look for mostly easterly transport winds for coastal zones and southeasterly transports for the Cascades.  Ventilation conditions will only be marginal.  On Thursday the offshore low moves to within about 250 miles of the northern California coast.  Upper level flow backs to southwesterly over the region.  Some light rain spreads in during the early morning hours, but at this point it looks like amounts will mainly be less than about a quarter of an inch.  Transport winds shift to southerly and maximum mixing heights recover to the 3-4000 foot range for improving ventilation conditions.  On Friday the upper low slides into California.  Periods of light rain continue west of the Cascades, southerly transport winds and mixing heights climbing to 4500 feet or above will make for good smoke dispersal conditions.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 3900 - 4900 ft.

Transport wind W to WNW at 16 - 30 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3900 - 4900 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 14 - 28 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 2200 - 3200 ft.

Transport wind decreases to WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind decreases to SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 3700 - 4700 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 16 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2800 - 3800 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind SW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 4100 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind W to NW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind WSW to NW at 6 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind shifts to SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 1900 - 2900 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2900 - 3900 ft.

Transport wind increases to WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind increases to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind becomes light and variable.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

OUTLOOK:

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 to 2400 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind ESE to SSE at 8 - 14 mph.  Surface wind E to SE at 6 - 10 mph.

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 12 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4300 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, October 26, 2010.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615, 616, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 616, 617, 622, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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