SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Fri Feb 4 14:30:00 PST 2011

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Friday, February 4, 2011       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

SATURDAY
The National Weather Service has issued an Air Stagnation Advisory, for central Douglas, eastern Curry, Josephine, and Jackson Counties, through 10 a.m. Monday.  The Air Stagnation Advisory for Klamath and Lake Counties will expire at 10 a.m. Saturday.
A persistent upper-level ridge of high pressure, which has been over the region for several days, will stay just far enough offshore to allow considerable cloudiness to continue to slide over it and drop southeastward across Oregon.  Light rain will likely be confined to the northern zones and decrease during the day, in a northwesterly flow aloft, as the upper-level ridge of high pressure nudges closer to the coastline.
In the north, rainfall amounts should be from one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch along the coast and Cascades ranges, with less than one-tenth of an inch at most lower elevations.  Some very light rain could extend southward into the higher elevations of the central zones, with little or no rain across the southwestern zones.  The snow level will drop to about 6000 feet north and 7000 feet south.  Mixing heights will be similar to Friday, with continued marginal to poor smoke dispersal conditions.  Northern zones should have west to southwest transport winds with light northwest to north transport winds across the southern zones.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)
Some drying of the air mass is forecast for Sunday, with the upper-level ridge building slightly over the region.  Northwesterly flow aloft will continue to spread some clouds across the region, but shower activity will be minimal.  Little change is forecast in mixing heights and transport winds with continued marginal to poor smoke dispersal conditions.
On Monday, the upper-level ridge is forecast to back away from the coastline, with a stronger upper-level disturbance forecast to drop southeastward across Washington and northern Oregon.  This system will not have a lot of moisture to work with, but it will likely spread some showers across mainly the northern and eastern zones, with the snow level dropping to 3500 feet north and 5000 feet south.  Cooling aloft will begin to lift mixing heights with improving afternoon smoke dispersal conditions.  Transport winds will turn west to northwest across the northern zones and remain northwest to north across the southern zones.

A dry and cooler northerly flow aloft is forecast by Tuesday afternoon.  Mixing heights will be fair on Tuesday but will deteriorate considerably by Thursday, as the upper-level ridge builds back over the west coast.  This period may provide burning opportunities for units requiring north or northeast transport winds.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601-612 (North Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind increases to S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 615-623 (South Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 to 2300 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NW at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 2600 to 3600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NE to E at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NE to E at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNE to ENE at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, February 5 and 6, 2011.

=================================================================

For Saturday:

Coast Range

Zone 601, 612, 615, 616 west of and R8W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 602, 603, and 620

No burning allowed.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 610, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart.

Zone 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620 and 622

No burning allowed.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

For Sunday:

Coast Range

Zone 601, 612, 615, 616 west of and R8W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 602, 603, and 620

No burning allowed.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 610, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 620 and 622

No burning allowed.

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.
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