SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Wed Feb 9 14:56:33 PST 2011

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Wednesday, February 9, 2011       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

THURSDAY
Dry weather will continue with areas of morning valley fog giving way to afternoon sunshine.  The axis of a broad upper-level ridge is forecast to move close to the coastline.  Subsidence will further suppress maximum mixing heights with generally light north to northeasterly transport winds and poor smoke dispersal conditions.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)
On Friday the upper ridge axis is forecast to move east of the Cascades with the flow aloft becoming more westerly.  After areas of morning valley fog, skies should, become mostly sunny.  Transport winds are forecast to turn south-southwesterly and increase during the afternoon.  Maximum mixing heights will rise with smoke dispersal conditions improving to marginal.
On Saturday a Pacific cold front is forecast to spread rain and mountain snow across western Washington, and the northwestern corner of Oregon, with increasing clouds elsewhere.  Smoke dispersal conditions will improve to fair south and fair to good north, with cooling aloft leading to higher afternoon mixing heights.  Transport winds continue to increase from the southwest.
By Sunday, the flattened upper-level ridge axis is forecast to be near the Oregon/Idaho border with westerly flow aloft over Oregon.  The first in what appears will be a series of Pacific storms is forecast to weaken over northern Oregon.  Some rain is likely north of a Newport to Detroit line, with only a chance of light rain extending into the southern zones.  The snow level is forecast to range from near 4000 feet north to around 6000 feet south.   Smoke dispersal conditions should be fair with weakening south to southwesterly transport winds.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601-612 (North Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1000 - 1700 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable but favors N to E and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors N to E and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1100 - 2100 ft by late morning.

Transport wind ENE to ESE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind NNE to E at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind shifts to NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1000 - 1900 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable but favors N to E and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors N to E and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1600 - 2600 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 1900 to 2900 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to S at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

SATURDAY

Mixing height 1800 to 2800 ft during the morning rising to 3100 to 4100 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 13 - 25 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

SUNDAY

Mixing height 1800 to 2800 ft during the morning rising to 2800 to 3800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SSW at 9 - 15 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Thursday, February 10, 2011.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed.

Zone 615, 616, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 620, and 622

No burning allowed.

Zone 607, 608, 609, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart.

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.
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