SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Thu Feb 10 14:39:23 PST 2011

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Thursday, February 10, 2011       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

FRIDAY
The axis of a broad upper-level ridge is forecast to move east of the Cascades with the flow aloft becoming more westerly.  After areas of morning valley fog, skies should become mostly sunny.  Look for increasing clouds across northwestern zones in the afternoon.  Transport winds are forecast to turn south-southwesterly and increase during the afternoon.  Maximum mixing heights will be higher than on Thursday, with marginal to fair afternoon smoke dispersal conditions.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY)
The upper-level ridge will flatten on Saturday, as a Pacific cold front spreads rain and mountain snow across western Washington and into northwestern Oregon during the afternoon.  Clouds will increase across the central and southern zones.  Smoke dispersal conditions will become fair to good, as southwesterly transport winds increase and low-level inversions begin to break, especially north.
The cold front is forecast to stall over northern Oregon Sunday morning.  Rain is likely north of a line from North Bend through Oakridge, with a chance of rain south.  The snow level is forecast to range from near 4000 feet north to above 6000 feet south.  The flow aloft is forecast to turn southwesterly Sunday afternoon, with the frontal system slowly migrating back to the north.  Most of the rain and snow should push into Washington by evening. Smoke dispersal conditions should be fair with transport winds weakening and turning southerly in the afternoon.
A strong upper-level trough will approach the coastline Monday with increasing southwesterly flow aloft.  Computer models are showing a fairly impressive surface low-pressure system moving into Vancouver Island, British Columbia late in the day.  After a dry morning, the associated cold front should spread brisk southeast to south winds, and eventually rain, across western Oregon during the afternoon and evening. Smoke dispersal conditions should be good, with brisk south to southwesterly transport winds. Snow levels should remain above 5000 feet.  In the wake of the strong cold front, snow levels will rapidly drop below 3000 feet Tuesday with heavy mountain snow and ample valley rain likely.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601-612 (North Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 800 ft early rising to 1400 - 2400 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2200 - 3200 ft.

Transport wind increases to SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SW at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 615-623 (South Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 800 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2200 - 3200 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1200 - 2200 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

SATURDAY

Mixing height 1600 to 2600 ft during the morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 18 - 30 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

SUNDAY

Mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising to 2600 to 3600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SSW at 10 - 18 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to S at 14 - 24 mph during the morning becoming S to SSW at 25 - 45 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind ESE to SSE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SE to S at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, February 11, 2011.

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Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 620

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S in Zone 616.

Zone 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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