SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Fri Feb 11 14:43:47 PST 2011

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Friday, February 11, 2011       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

SATURDAY

The broad upper-level ridge that has been over the region for several days will flatten with increasing westerly flow aloft.  Skies will turn cloudy north and mostly cloudy south, with a Pacific cold front spreading rain, from northwest to southeast, across western Oregon during the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the cold front, increasing low-level south to southwesterly winds will improve mixing with fair to good smoke dispersal conditions.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)
The cold front will likely stall over central and southern Oregon Sunday morning, before migrating back northward, as a warm front, Sunday afternoon.  That will maintain at least a chance of rain across all zones under mostly cloudy skies.  The snow level should start out between 4500 feet north 6000 feet south, before slowly rising during the afternoon.  Smoke dispersal conditions should be fair with weakening mostly southerly low-level winds.

As the upper-level flow backs from westerly to southwesterly, most of the rain and higher elevation snow should push into Washington by Monday morning. The northwestern corner of Oregon, and the immediate coastal areas, may continue to pick up some rain Monday morning, with a brief break elsewhere.  Smoke dispersal conditions should be good.
A strong upper-level trough will approach the coastline Monday afternoon with increasing southwesterly flow aloft.  The associated cold front should spread brisk southeast to south winds, and significant rainfall, across western Oregon during the afternoon and evening.  Smoke dispersion will be fair to good.  Snow levels should remain in the 5-6000 foot range.
The strong cold front is forecast to move across the Cascades Tuesday morning with steady precipitation turning more showery.  Much colder air aloft will rapidly drop snow levels below 3000 feet with heavy mountain snow likely.  Smoke dispersal conditions should be good with southwesterly transport winds.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSW at 20 - 36 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW at 28 - 48 mph.

Surface wind SSW to SW at 10 - 20 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind SW at 25 - 43 mph.

Surface wind S to SSW at 10 - 22 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 15 - 29 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW at 23 - 41 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind SSW to SW at 10 - 18 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 18 - 30 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW at 20 - 36 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1200 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft by late morning.

Transport wind S to SSW at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to SSW to SW at 18 - 30 mph.

Surface wind SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

SUNDAY

Mixing height 2100 to 3100 ft throughout the day.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.

MONDAY

Mixing height 1900 to 2900 ft during the morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SSW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 16 - 30 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

TUESDAY

Mixing height 4200 to 5000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 18 - 32 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 14 mph.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, February 12 and 13, 2011.

=================================================================

For Saturday:

Coast Range

Zone 601, 612, and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 615

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  South of T35S in Zone 620 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T18S through T22S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.

Zone 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

For Sunday:

Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

Zone 615 and 620

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 610, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606.

Zone 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <https://omls.oregon.gov/pipermail/smi_west/attachments/20110211/e4e7118b/attachment.html>