SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Sun May 1 14:22:23 PDT 2011

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Sunday, May 1, 2011       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    MONDAY

A fairly active cold front reaches the coastline early Monday morning slowly spreading rain eastward across Oregon.  The rain will change to showery weather by afternoon as the front passes east.  Transport winds will be southwesterly ahead of the front but switch to northwesterly behind.  The shifting winds mean a larger "downwind" sector and may limit burning in the north coast range.  Smoke dispersal conditions should be fair to good.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (TUESDAY - THURSDAY)

The upper trough associated with Monday's front moves east Tuesday and higher pressure builds offshore.  This will lead to drying but not before overnight showers Monday night into Tuesday morning bring snow down to about 3500 feet.  Transport winds should be generally north-northwesterly and smoke dispersal conditions fair to good.
The upper ridge axis moves directly over western Oregon Wednesday morning.  This will suppress mixing heights and smoke dispersal conditions over portions of the Cascades will drop to marginal, with fair conditions likely elsewhere.  A thermal trough builds offshore but then moves eastward during the day.  Thus transport winds will be offshore early but shift onshore later in the day.  Units that benefit from an easterly component to transport winds may see an opportunity if they can be lit and finished fairly early.
By Thursday a weak upper trough moves over the region as the upper ridge moves east.  Mixing heights improve and transport winds will have a westerly component with southwesterly transports in the north and northwesterly transport winds in the south.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 3400 - 4400 ft.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind SSW to W at 6 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3700 - 4700 ft.

Transport wind W to WNW at 12 - 22 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 1800 - 2800 ft.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 9 - 15 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind shifts to WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind shifts to SW to W at 9 - 15 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2800 - 3800 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind W to NW at 8 - 12 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind SSW to W at 6 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3700 - 4700 ft.

Transport wind shifts to WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind shifts to WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1600 - 2600 ft.

Transport wind NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 12 - 22 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 22 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind decreases to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind decreases to W to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1900 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

OUTLOOK:

TUESDAY

Mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NE to E at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4300 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Monday, May 2, 2011.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 east of R9W and 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 618

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 619

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T15S through T20S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.

Zone 610, 611, and 622

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  East of R2W in Zone 622, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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