SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Mon May 2 13:55:28 PDT 2011

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Monday, May 2, 2011       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    TUESDAY

The upper trough that brought rain to portions of Oregon on Monday moves east on Tuesday while an upper level ridge builds to the west.  The air aloft will still be cool enough to allow for high afternoon mixing heights and thus good smoke dispersal conditions.  Transport winds will be generally northwesterly over the north coast range but elsewhere expect northerly winds and a good opportunity for units that are difficult to burn on the frequent southwesterly winds this time of year.

    OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY)

The upper ridge begins the day Wednesday along the coastline but by evening has drifted eastward to over eastern Washington and Oregon.  A thermal trough builds out of California and to offshore of southwest Oregon early, but shifts inland as the ridge aloft shifts.  Thus expect some offshore flow early but transport winds will turn onshore during the day.  There is some model difference in timing of the wind shift but best estimate now is late morning.  Wednesday will be a warm day, the freezing level should approach 10,000 feet.  Temperatures in the north will be 2-8 degrees above average and 6-12 degrees above average in the south.

The upper ridge has shifted to over western Montana by Thursday morning and a weak upper trough moves into Washington.  An associated cold front clips northwest Oregon for a slight chance of rain there, but elsewhere look for just middle and high clouds.  The trough does support some instability for good afternoon mixing heights and good smoke dispersal conditions.  Transport winds will be onshore or westerly with mostly southwesterly flow in the north and northwesterly flow in the south.

Friday an upper low moves down the southeast Alaska/British Columbia coastline.  Mid-level warming with the southwest flow ahead of the low suppresses mixing heights somewhat and smoke dispersal conditions will only be fair for the north coast and fair to good elsewhere.  Surface temperatures drop to near or slightly below average and transport winds will be mostly southwesterly for northern zones and west-northwesterly for southern coastal areas.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 4200 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind increases to NNW to N at 8 - 14 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind NW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to NW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1200 - 2200 ft.

Transport wind N to NE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NNE to ENE at 8 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to NNW to NNE at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 10 - 16 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind NNW to NE at 6 - 12 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 3100 - 4100 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind NW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3700 - 4700 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 1200 - 2200 ft.

Transport wind N to NE at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NE at 5 - 9 mph.

OUTLOOK:

WEDNESDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 to 2400 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3600 to 4600 ft by late morning rising to 4300 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NE to E at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NE to E at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

THURSDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 to 2600 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2600 to 3600 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

FRIDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 to 2600 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2600 to 3600 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, May 3, 2011.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of Forest Grove/Hillsboro or Sheridan/Willamina in Zone 602.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615, 616 west of R8W, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

Zone 620

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

Cascades

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA.

Zone 607, 608, 609, 611, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.

Zone 610

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  South of T30S units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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