SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Tue May 3 14:09:38 PDT 2011

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Tuesday, May 3, 2011       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    WEDNESDAY

An upper level ridge drifts eastward across the region on Wednesday.  The axis of the ridge is near the coast early in the morning but by evening lies along a line from eastern Washington to eastern Oregon.  Warm air aloft suppresses mixing heights and keeps smoke dispersal conditions only in the fair category many areas.  Surface temperatures will be 5 to 7 degrees above average in northern interior sections while southern interior valleys will see temperatures as much as 8 to 12 degrees above the mean.

A surface thermal trough is along the coast during the early morning hours but shifts inland by late morning, then to over the Cascades by early evening.  Shifting winds may pose problems as the trough axis moves through.  Expect a generally light northeast through easterly transport with some east-southeast winds in the southern interior zones.  These will shift to light northwesterly following the passage of the thermal trough.

    OUTLOOK (THURSDAY - SATURDAY)

The upper ridge shifts to the northern plains on Thursday as a weak upper trough moves across the Pacific Northwest.  Moisture is limited. Northwestern Oregon could see a few sprinkles, otherwise look for just mid and high clouds.  Temperatures in northern sections fall back to near average in the north but are still at plus 5 to 10 degrees in the southern interior.  Mixing heights recover a bit and smoke dispersal conditions will be mostly fair to good.  Transport winds will be north or northwesterly.

A generally zonal or west to east flow aloft prevails on Friday.  Low level transport winds will be generally southwesterly in the northern sections, while southern zones will see a northwesterly transport flow.  Smoke dispersal conditions remain fair to good.

Little change in the broad upper scale flow for Saturday is likely, but a weak impulse in the flow should bring some light rain to northwestern Oregon.  Elsewhere look for just an increase in mid and high level cloudiness.  Surface temperatures cool to 6-10 degrees below average and transport winds should tend toward southwesterly.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 2300 - 3300 ft.

Transport wind NE to ENE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NNE to ENE at 6 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1800 ft.

Transport wind increases to NW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind shifts to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 3300 - 4300 ft.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind increases to NNW to NE at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to NW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1900 - 2900 ft.

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind NNE to ENE at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2700 - 3700 ft.

Transport wind shifts to NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind shifts to NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1200 - 2200 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2600 - 3600 ft.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3700 - 4700 ft.

Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind increases to WSW to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1100 - 2100 ft.

Transport wind shifts to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable.

OUTLOOK:

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 to 2600 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 to 2600 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 to 2600 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming SW to WSW at 16 - 30 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Wednesday, May 4, 2011.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 615

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 620

No burning allowed.  Some burning allowed south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

Cascades

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in Zone 606.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 607 and 608

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 609, 610, 611, 616, 617, 622, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 620

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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