SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Sun May 8 14:33:21 PDT 2011

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Sunday, May 8, 2011       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

  MONDAY

A very deep (for this time of year) upper low is centered over the Oregon/Idaho/Nevada border early in the day.  It pulls slowly south during the day and by evening is centered over Wendover, Utah.  As the low moves away weak upper ridging builds offshore.  With stabilization of the atmosphere showers end early and the day should be mostly dry.  Mixing heights will be suppressed but smoke dispersal conditions should be generally good.  Low level transports will be generally light northwest veering to more northerly with height.

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK (TUESDAY - THURSDAY)

Tuesday the ridge builds and moves over the region for dry weather.  Onshore flow at low levels will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy.  With warming aloft but surface temperatures only recovering to near average mixing heights will be further suppressed and smoke dispersal conditions will only be marginal to fair.  Transport winds will be light northeasterly shifting to light northwesterly during the day.

On Wednesday the ridge moves east as yet another deep upper level low moves slowly southeastward in the Gulf of Alaska and begins to affect the Pacific Northwest.  This low will be a major weather feature for several days.  A Pacific cold front associated with the low will move in by Wednesday afternoon. Healthy rainfall for May is likely, with up to a quarter of an inch in the north and lighter amounts south.  Surface temperatures remain near average and with cooling aloft maximum mixing heights improve.  Low level transport winds will be mostly northwesterly backing to southwesterly with height.

Friday sees a broad upper low centered about 200 miles west of Vancouver Island with southwesterly flow aloft over the region. Post frontal showers continue through the day and surface temperatures will be anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees below average for the time of year.  Mixing heights should climb to 5000 feet or above, however.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind W to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind increases to WNW to NW at 10 - 22 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 1900 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3100 - 4100 ft.

Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1400 - 2400 ft.

Transport wind W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3200 - 4200 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind increases to NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3500-4000 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind increases to NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

TUESDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2600 to 3600 ft by late morning rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3400 to 4400 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2600 to 3600 ft by late morning rising to 4100 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming SSW to W at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

THURSDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3400 to 4400 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2600 to 3600 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Monday, May 9, 2011.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S in Zone 616.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 620

No burning allowed except some burning allowed south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T15S through T20S in Zone 608 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  South of T30S units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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