SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Fri May 6 14:34:47 PDT 2011

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Friday, May 6, 2011       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

-   Issued 7-days-a-week through the spring burning season -

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

SATURDAY

A Pacific cold front will move across western Oregon Friday night and early Saturday, followed by an impressive upper-level trough.  Expect generally cloudy skies with rain north and areas of light rain south in the morning.  The rain will turn to showers by late-morning, with increasing showers in the afternoon and evening.

Precipitation totals could locally exceed one-half inch north, over higher terrain, with amounts mostly less than one-quarter of an inch south.  The snow level will drop to 4000 feet north and to 6000 feet south late.  High temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal.  Cooling aloft will improve mixing with generally west to southwest transport winds.

OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)

By Sunday, the unseasonably cold upper-level trough is forecast to move directly over the Pacific Northwest.  Rain and snow showers will be numerous with widespread precipitation totals ranging from around one-tenth of an inch to more than one-quarter of an inch.  The snow level will drop to 3500-4500 feet by evening, as the showers begin to taper off. Cold air aloft should make for good mixing with onshore transport winds veering to northwesterly.

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to drop southeastward, to over Nevada, with a drier north-northeasterly flow aloft over Oregon.  Look for decreasing showers, with clearing skies, but cool surface temperatures and some warming aloft will lower mixing heights.  Transport winds will turn more northerly.

Tuesday looks dry and warmer, as a transitory upper-level ridge moves onshore and over Oregon.  Skies should turn mostly sunny, after areas of morning fog and low clouds.  Afternoon temperatures will recover to above normal, with slightly higher mixing heights and fair smoke dispersal conditions.  Transport winds will be light and turn onshore in the afternoon.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 2400 - 3400 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to SSW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind decreases to SW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2400 - 3400 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to SSW to WSW at 18 - 30 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind decreases to SW to W at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 2200 - 3200 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to SW to WSW at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind shifts to WSW to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind decreases to WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2300 - 3300 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to WSW to WNW and increases to 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind shifts to W to NW at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind decreases to W to NW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

OUTLOOK:

SUNDAY

Mixing height 1800 to 2800 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 to 2400 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to N at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 to 2700 ft by late morning rising to 3600 to 4600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, May 7, 2011.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

Zone 615

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 618

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 619 and 620

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  South of T35S in Zone 620 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T18S through T22S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.

Zone 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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