SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Thu May 5 14:26:08 PDT 2011

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Thursday, May 5, 2011       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

FRIDAY

A strengthening westerly jet stream will push another weather system onshore late in the day.  Clouds will increase across all zones with a chance of sprinkles or light rain north.  Northern and coastal temperatures will be near to slightly below normal, while the southern interior remains a few degrees above normal.  Transport winds will remain onshore with fair mixing.

OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY)

Precipitation should be limited to northern zones early Saturday, with only a slight chance of light rain south.  However, showers will increase in coverage Saturday afternoon and evening, as an impressive upper-level trough comes onshore.  The snow level will drop to 4000 feet north and to 6000 feet south late.  High temperatures will cool to 5-10 degrees below average north and to near normal south.  Cooling aloft will improve mixing with continued onshore transport winds.

By Sunday, an unseasonably cold upper-level trough is forecast to make camp over the Pacific Northwest.  Rain and snow showers will be numerous with widespread precipitation totals over .10 inches and some areas picking up over .25 inches.  The snow level will drop to 3500-4500 feet by evening. Cold air aloft should make for fair to good mixing with onshore transport winds turning more northwesterly.

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to drop southeastward, to over Nevada, with a drier northerly flow aloft developing over Oregon.  Skies will begin to clear, but cool surface temperatures and some warming aloft will make for only fair smoke dispersal conditions.  Transport winds will likely turn northerly.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2100 - 3100 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3100 - 4100 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 - 3200 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3300 - 4300 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 615-623 (South Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable but favors W and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NW and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind increases to W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind decreases to WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

SATURDAY

Mixing height 1900 to 2900 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

SUNDAY

Mixing height 1800 to 2800 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming W to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1900 to 2900 ft by late morning rising to 2800 to 3800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, May 6, 2011.

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Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 618

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 619

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620

No burning allowed.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 610, 616, 617, 622, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T18S through T22S in Zone 608 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart.

Zone 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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