SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Wed May 4 14:31:49 PDT 2011

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Wednesday, May 4, 2011       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

THURSDAY

An upper-level ridge is forecast to flatten and shift eastward, to over the northern Rockies, as a weak upper-level trough moves across the Pacific Northwest.  Expect skies to start out mostly cloudy north and partly cloudy south, with slow afternoon clearing.  Northern zones could see a few light showers, especially early along western-facing slopes.

Onshore transport winds will cool temperatures in northern and coastal sections back to near average, but the southern interior will still be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal.  Afternoon mixing will be fair to good with west to northwesterly transport winds.

OUTLOOK (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)

A westerly flow aloft is forecast for Friday, with the region between storm systems. Transport winds will be generally southwesterly over the northern sections and northwesterly over the southern zones.  Another weak weather system will approach the coastline in the afternoon.  Increasing clouds will hold temperatures close to Thursday's highs with fair to good afternoon mixing.

A strengthening westerly jet stream will direct another cold front across the Pacific Northwest Friday night, with a cool upper-level trough moving onshore Saturday.  Precipitation will be limited to northern zones early Saturday but should increase in coverage Saturday afternoon and evening.  The snow level will drop to 4000 feet north and to 6000 feet south late.  High temperatures will cool to 5-10 degrees below average north and to near normal south.  Transport winds will me mostly southwesterly over the northern zones and more westerly over the southern zones.  Cooling aloft will make for fair to good afternoon mixing.

By Sunday, another unseasonably cold upper-level trough will make camp over the Pacific Northwest.  Rain and snow will be widespread with precipitation totals over .10 inches common.  The snow level will drop to 3-4000 feet by evening. Cold air aloft should make for good mixing with southwesterly transport winds veering to northwesterly in the afternoon.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SW to W at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind shifts to WSW to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind decreases to W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind SW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind W to NW at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind WSW to NW at 6 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind decreases to WSW to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3700 - 4700 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind increases to NW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind NW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind decreases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 700 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind W to NW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind decreases to NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind decreases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

OUTLOOK:

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2800 to 3800 ft by late morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2800 to 3800 ft by late morning rising to 4100 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 8 - 14 mph.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

SUNDAY

Mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Thursday, May 5, 2011.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 east of R9W and 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T15S through T20S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  East of R2W in Zone 622, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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