SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Wed May 11 14:48:12 PDT 2011

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Wednesday, May 11, 2011       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    THURSDAY
An upper level low pressure area will spin off the coast Thursday and Friday then open up and move over Oregon and Washington over the weekend.  There will still be some post frontal showers over western Oregon on Thursday but the main low center will stay well offshore and moisture will be limited during the day.  Surface temperatures will range five to ten degrees below average, but temperatures aloft will be cool as well so maximum mixing heights should be quite high.  Transport winds in the northern zones will be south or southwesterly and southern areas should see a west or northwesterly flow.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (FRIDAY - SUNDAY)
On Friday the upper low remains far enough offshore such that there is very little moisture available for precipitation.  Thus expect dry weather and with southerly aloft temperatures recover to near average.  Maximum afternoon mixing heights will remain fairly high and smoke dispersal conditions should be generally fair to good with a mostly north-northeast to east-northeast transport flow.
Saturday showers develop as the upper low opens up and rotates into the area as an upper level trough.  Smoke dispersal conditions remain fair to good but transport flow will be light, generally northwest through southwest.
Sunday the upper trough is directly over the area.  Expect numerous showers and quite cool weather with temperatures from 10 to 15 degrees below average for mid May.  Mixing heights should climb to around 4000 feet and transport winds will become south or south-southwest during the day.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to SW to W at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind shifts to SW to W at 8 - 14 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1800 - 2800 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind SW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind SW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to W to NW at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind increases to W to NW at 9 - 15 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1400 - 2400 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 4400 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind SW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WSW to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1600 - 2600 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

OUTLOOK:

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3700 to 4700 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Thursday, May 12, 2011.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 602, 603, and 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Units may be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

Zone 618

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 619

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 616, 617, 622, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T15S through T20S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

Zone 610, 611, and 620

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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