SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Tue May 10 14:07:43 PDT 2011

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Tuesday, May 10, 2011       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    WEDNESDAY

The upper ridge that brought sunshine to much of the state Tuesday moves east on Wednesday.  In the meantime an upper level low off the west coast of North America becomes the major factor in Pacific Northwest weather.  The low supports a Pacific cold front that will reach the north coast by late morning and spread rain to the Cascade crest by late afternoon.  Rainfall amounts of around a quarter of an inch are possible in northern sections while southern locations will see about a tenth of an inch.

Temperatures will be five to 10 degrees below average for mid May.  Freezing levels will drop in the north and any precipitation falling by late Wednesday could be show as low as 2500 feet there.  Warm air streaming north at middle levels ahead of the front will limit mixing heights although after frontal passage cooler temperatures aloft will push maximum mixing heights to 5000 feet.  Transport winds will be mostly south-southwesterly ahead of the front but shift to northwesterly behind.

    OUTLOOK (THURSDAY - SATURDAY)

The upper low is centered about 300 miles west of Vancouver Island Thursday morning drifting slowly southward.  Moisture will be limited over western Oregon, but some post frontal showers are likely.  With cool air aloft mixing heights should be quite high and transport winds will be brisk southerly or southwesterly most areas for good smoke dispersal conditions.

The upper low moves to about 500 miles west of the mouth of the Columbia River by Friday.  This is far enough offshore that most precipitation with this low should remain offshore.  There may be some mountain showers during the afternoon but otherwise expect dry weather for the region.  Mixing heights should stay high but transport winds will be light north or northwesterly.

By Saturday the low aloft will be about 350 miles west of Brookings but slowly rotating toward northern California.  This will bring an increasing chance of rain to western Oregon.  While mixing heights will be high, transport winds will be light and variable most areas.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind shifts to WNW to NW at 10 - 22 mph.

Surface wind shifts to WNW to NW at 8 - 14 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1800 - 2800 ft.

Transport wind decreases to WSW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 3100 - 4100 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3600 - 4600 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1600 - 2600 ft.

Transport wind shifts to W to NW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind shifts to W to NW at 8 - 14 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 2800 - 3800 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3800 - 4800 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft.

Transport wind shifts to NW to N at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind shifts to NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2700 - 3700 ft.

Transport wind SSW to W at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 8 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to WNW to NW at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind shifts to WNW to NW at 10 - 16 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1900 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable.

Surface wind decreases to W to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

OUTLOOK:

THURSDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4300 to 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2800 to 3800 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Wednesday, May 11, 2011.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 616 east of R9W and 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 618

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 619

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 610, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T18S through T22S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.

Zone 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 622

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  East of R2W, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Siskiyous

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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