SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Thu May 12 14:48:05 PDT 2011

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Thursday, May 12, 2011       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

-   Issued 7-days-a-week through the spring burning season -

FRIDAY

An upper-level low-pressure center will produce a warming south-southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon but remain far enough offshore to greatly limit the threat of showers.  With only partly cloudy skies and warming aloft, daytime temperatures should climb to just above normal. Afternoon heating will destabilize the air mass enough to produce some increase in cloud-cover and possibly a few showers, mainly over higher terrain.

Warming aloft may slightly suppress maximum afternoon mixing heights, but daytime smoke dispersal conditions should be generally fair to good.  Transport winds will begin offshore but are forecast to quickly turn back onshore across the central and southern zones.  More persistent offshore transport winds are likely across the extreme northern zones.

OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY)

On Saturday, the offshore upper-level low-pressure system is forecast to slowly move closer to the southern Oregon coast.  Increasing south-southeasterly flow aloft will direct more moisture into the region.  Afternoon heating will destabilize the air mass, with more widespread shower development likely, especially over higher terrain.  Weak onshore flow and increasing clouds will limit surface warming.  Maximum temperatures will drop back below normal.  The snow level will drop to about 6-7000 feet in the afternoon.  Cooling aloft should help to maintain at least fair smoke dispersal conditions.

The upper-level trough is forecast to come onshore Sunday and Monday, with a very cool and moist air mass over Oregon.  Expect numerous showers with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms each day.  The snow level should drop to 3-4000 feet with maximum surface temperatures 10-15 degrees below average.  Cooling aloft will make for fair to good afternoon mixing with mostly southwesterly transport winds.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind NNE to ENE at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

EVENING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind ENE to ESE at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind NE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind decreases to ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to WSW to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind shifts to W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2600 to 3600 ft by late morning rising to 3400 to 4400 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, May 13, 2011.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601, 602, 603, and 612

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.

Zone 615

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 east of R9W and 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 618

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 619

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, and 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 607, 608, and 622

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  East of R2W in Zone 622, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 609, 610, and 611

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Siskiyous

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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