SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Fri May 13 14:37:13 PDT 2011

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Friday, May 13, 2011       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

SATURDAY

An offshore upper-level low-pressure system is forecast to slowly move closer to the southern Oregon coast.  Increasing southeasterly flow aloft will direct more moisture into the region.  Afternoon heating will destabilize the air mass, with shower development likely, especially south and over higher terrain.  Increasing clouds will limit surface warming and mixing.  Maximum temperatures should be about 5 degrees below normal.  The snow level will only drop to about 6-7000 feet.  Afternoon mixing heights will be mostly below 3000 feet, which will combine with very light onshore transport winds to make for just marginal smoke dispersal conditions.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)

The upper-level trough is forecast to come onshore Sunday and make camp over the Pacific Northwest, slowly weakening Monday and Tuesday.  That will park a very cool and moist air mass over Oregon.  Expect numerous showers Sunday with a chance of thunderstorms, mainly south.  Showers will continue Monday and Tuesday but will be on the decrease.  The snow level should drop to 3-4000 feet.  Maximum surface temperatures will start out about 10-15 degrees below average, on Sunday, before recovering to about 5 degrees below normal by Tuesday.  Colder air aloft will make for fair to good afternoon mixing with onshore flow.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601-612 (North Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable but favors W to NW and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors W to NW and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2200 - 3200 ft.

Transport wind increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind increases to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft.

Transport wind WSW to NW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.

Zone 615-623 (South Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable but favors NW and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NW and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2300 - 3300 ft.

Transport wind increases to NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind increases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 to 2800 ft by late morning rising to 3600 to 4600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

MONDAY

Mixing height 1900 to 2900 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2300 to 3300 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, May 14, 2011.

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Coast Range

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 602, 603, and 620

No burning allowed.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.  Some burning allowed south of the Rogue River in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 611, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T12S through T17S in Zone 608 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart.

Zone 610

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620 and 622

No burning allowed.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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