[willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, November 7th, 2008

[Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast]

Daily Smoke Management Forecast




Oregon Department of Agriculture
Smoke Management Program
Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts.

Issued: 
     Friday, November 7th, 2008 at 9:00am.

Burn Advisory:
     Agricultural burning is allowed.  Suggested burn times are from now until 3:00pm.
     Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 3:00pm.

Weather Discussion:
     A strong warm stalled over westner Washington Thursday with
     localy heavy rain continuing to fall over northwestern
     Washington this morning.  Rainfall amounts in the past 24
     hours have been on the order of 3-5 inches across northwest
     Washington, from about Olympia northward.  Locally heavy
     rain was still falling this morning in the Seatle area.

     Meanwhile, with the warm front north of Oregon, mild
     southerly winds forced Willamette Valley temperatures into
     the low 60s Thursday afternoon with generally dry
     conditions.  Cloudy skies and southerly winds made for a
     mild night with temperatures staying in the mid to upper 50s.

     The morning ODA surface analysis showed the warm front
     stretching from the northern Washington Coast to near
     Seattle with southerly gradients across northwestern Oregon.
     South winds were continuing to blow at about 10-25 mph
     along the northern and central Oregon Coast and around 10
     mph in the Willamette Valley.

     Satellite imagery showed cloudy skies extending from
     northwestern Washington back to a cold front, about 300
     miles offshore.  Clouds were increasing across northwestern
     Oregon, in association with the approaching cold front. 
     Doppler radar showed a few showers coming onshore and moving
     across northwest Oregon with areas of light rain being
     reported along the coast.  It was extremely mild at
     mid-morning with western Oregon temperatures ranging from 54
     degrees in Eugene to 60 in Portland.

     The Salem sounding this morning was almost identical to
     Thursday morning below 6000 feet, with significant warming
     above 6000 feet.  The freezing level had jumped to an
     unseasonably high 11,600 feet.  Transport winds were still
     south-southwesterly but not quite as strong as on
     Thursday.

     Western Oregon should remain in the \\\"warm sector\\\" of this
     storm system today with continued southerly wind and mild
     temperaturs.  There will be some scattered light showers,
     but rainfall amounts will be mimimal.  High temperatures
     will, once again, climb into the low 60s. 

Surface Winds:
     S 10 this morning, S 10 this afternoon.
Transport Winds:
     SSW 18 this morning, SSW 20 this afternoon.
Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions:
     Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet.  Ventilation index 40.
High Temperature:
     Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 62.
Humidities:
     Minimum relative humidity will be near 75%.
Sunrise/Sunset:
     Salem sunset tonight: 4:52pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:01am.

Extended Outlook:
     A Pacific cold front is forecast to bring more rain to the
     region tonight and Saturday, but snow levels should remain
     above the Cascades passes until the cold front pushes east
     of the region Saturday evening.  A cool upper-level trough
     will bring showers to the region Sunday and Monday, with the
     snow level around 4000 feet.

     Another system is forecast to bring more rain Tuesday with
     rising snow levels.  A warm front will likely be strong
     enough to continue the rain Wednesday, with snow levels
     rising to well above pass levels.  The cold front is
     forecast to push through Wednesday night and lower snow
     levels to near the passes Thursday.  We may get a break from
     the rain next Friday, with another system forecast to come
     onshore Friday night.

Tomorrow (08 Nov):  Rain Likely...Turning to Showers by Evening.  52/57

Sun (09 Nov):  Showers.  Snow Level 4000 Feet.  42/52

Mon (10 Nov):  Decreasing Showers.  Snow Level Near 4500 Feet.  38/52

Tue (11 Nov):  Rain Likely.  Snow Level Rising to 6000 Feet.  38/55

Wed (12 Nov):  Light Rain Likely.  Snow Level Rising to Near 7000 Feet.  43/56

Thu (13 Nov):  Rain Turning to Showers.  Snow Level Dropping to 4000 Feet.  48/54

Fri (14 Nov):  Mostly Cloudy.  Chance of Light Rain North Late.  42/55

ODA Meteorologist
weather at oda.state.or.us