[willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, November 7th, 2008

[Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast]

Daily Smoke Management Forecast




Oregon Department of Agriculture
Smoke Management Program
Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts.

NOON UPDATE

...Next update Wednesday, November 12th, 2008 at 9:00am...

Issued: 
     Friday, November 7th, 2008 at 12:00pm.

Burn Advisory:
     Agricultural burning is allowed.  Suggested burn times are from now until 3:00pm.
     Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 3:00pm.

Weather Discussion:
     A strong warm front stalled over western Washington Thursday
     with localy heavy rain continuing to fall over northwestern
     Washington through this morning.  Rainfall amounts in the
     past 30 hours have been on the order of 4-7 inches across
     northwest Washington, from about Olympia northward.  Locally
     heavy rain was still falling this morning north of Seattle.

     Meanwhile, with the warm front north of Oregon, mild
     southerly winds and cloudy skies made for a mild
     temperatures overnight with valley minimums in the middle to
     upper 50s.  The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed the
     warm front stretching from the northern Washington Coast to
     just north of Seattle with weakening southerly gradients
     across northwestern Oregon.  South winds had decreasing to
     10-15 mph along the northern and central Oregon Coast and
     5-10 mph in the Willamette Valley.

     Satellite imagery showed cloudy skies over all of Washington
     and the northern half of Oregon.  extending from
     northwestern Washington back to a cold front, about 300
     miles offshore.  Clouds had also spred across all of western
     Oregon, in response to a slowly approaching cold front,
     about 250 miles offshore.

     Doppler radar showed a line of very light shower activity stretching
     from north-central Oregon to near Eugene with generally dry conditions
     over the remainder or Oregon.  Temperatures were very mild with
     late-morning readings near 60 degrees across all of western
     Oregon and ranging from the mid 40s to near 60, with a few
     sunbreaks, east of the Cascades.

     The Salem sounding this morning showed significant warming
     above 6000 feet compared to Thursday.  The freezing level had
     jumped to an unseasonably high 11,600 feet.  Transport winds
     were still south-southwesterly but had decreased since Thursday.

     Western Oregon should remain in the \\\"warm sector\\\" of this
     storm system today with continued southerly wind and mild
     temperaturs.  There will be some scattered light showers,
     but rainfall amounts will be mimimal.  Mild southerly winds
     will lift high temperatures, once again, into the low 60s. 

Surface Winds:
     S 5-10 this afternoon.
Transport Winds:
     SSW 20 this afternoon.
Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions:
     Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet.  Ventilation index 40.
High Temperature:
     Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 62.
Humidities:
     Minimum relative humidity will be near 75%.
Sunrise/Sunset:
     Salem sunset tonight: 4:52pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:01am.

Extended Outlook:
     A Pacific cold front is forecast to bring more rain to the
     region tonight and Saturday, but snow levels should remain
     above the Cascades passes until the cold front pushes east
     of the region Saturday evening.  A cool upper-level trough
     will bring showers to the region Sunday and Monday, with the
     snow level around 4000 feet.

     Another system is forecast to bring more rain Tuesday with
     rising snow levels.  A warm front will likely be strong
     enough to continue the rain Wednesday, with snow levels
     rising to well above pass levels.  The cold front is
     forecast to push through Wednesday night and lower snow
     levels to near the passes Thursday.  We may get a break from
     the rain next Friday, with another system forecast to come
     onshore Friday night.

Tomorrow (08 Nov):  Rain Likely...Turning to Showers by Evening.  52/57

Sun (09 Nov):  Showers.  Snow Level 4000 Feet.  42/52

Mon (10 Nov):  Decreasing Showers.  Snow Level Near 4500 Feet.  38/52

Tue (11 Nov):  Rain Likely.  Snow Level Rising to 6000 Feet.  38/55

Wed (12 Nov):  Light Rain Likely.  Snow Level Rising to Near 7000 Feet.  43/56

Thu (13 Nov):  Rain Turning to Showers.  Snow Level Dropping to 4000 Feet.  48/54

Fri (14 Nov):  Mostly Cloudy.  Chance of Light Rain North Late.  42/55

ODA Meteorologist
weather at oda.state.or.us